When Javier Milei appeared on stage in Brazil last month, he had some choice words for the country’s president. “Socialist trash”, “thief” and “convict”, the Argentine president said of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while standing alongside Right-wing ally Flavio Bolsonaro, who wielded a pair of oversized scissors.
Mr Milei was speaking in support of Mr Bolsonaro before the Brazilian elections in October, attempting to tighten Donald Trump’s increasing stranglehold on Latin America. But the outburst not only damaged diplomatic ties between Argentina and Brazil, it also gave Mr Lula a jump in the polls, deepened Mr Milei’s domestic struggles, and further wedded Buenos Aires to Washington at a precarious time.
Brazil downgrades ties
The row deepened on Tuesday when Brazil downgraded its diplomatic ties with Argentina. Ambassador Julio Bitelli will not return to Buenos Aires, and relations will be handled at the chargé d’affaires level. The move is a rare and significant rebuke from Latin America’s largest economy, and it signals that Lula’s government sees Milei’s provocations as more than just rhetorical excess.
Brazil’s housing minister, Dario Durigan, retorted that the economy was doing far better than Argentina’s and dismissed Mr Milei as a “clown”. That comment mirrors the growing disdain in Brasília for the Argentine leader, whose free-market radicalism and personal insults have made him a polarizing figure in regional diplomacy.
Domestic backlash
Mr Milei has also faced criticism at home. Axel Kicillof, the governor of Buenos Aires province and a key Peronist figure, said: “With these provocations, Mr Milei is jeopardising investments, exports, thousands of jobs, and Argentina’s interests, all to support a candidate at Trump’s behest.”
After the president returned from Brazil, polls showed trust among Argentines in their leader was at its lowest since he was elected, according to the Index of Government Trust. A striking 57 per cent believed the country was worse off since Mr Milei took office. The numbers reflect a deepening disillusionment with an administration that promised rapid economic stabilization but has delivered painful austerity, soaring poverty, and a recession that shows no sign of ending.
Dr Jill Hedges, a Latin America analyst at Oxford Analytica, said: “Every opinion poll you see shows how much he’s slipping. He’s hanging on there because there isn’t a very credible opposition alternative so far. But the economy is very bad for most people at the moment. His disapproval outweighs his approval in every survey I’ve seen for a long time. He’s looking at the elections and he wants to boost his nationalist credentials at the moment.”
A Trump-aligned strategy
Part of that strategy has been his close alignment with Mr Trump, who has forged alliances across Latin America to turn a series of countries to the Right. Mr Milei was perhaps inspired by the US president last week in his decision to ban foreign critics of Argentina from entering the country. The government declared: “In the face of recent expressions of hostility towards the Argentine Republic and Argentines, the national government reaffirms that the defence of the nation, its citizens and its symbols is non-negotiable.”
The move echoes Trump-era travel bans and is widely seen as an attempt to project strength to a domestic audience that is growing weary of Milei’s shock-therapy policies. Critics argue that the ban targets journalists and human rights advocates, further isolating Argentina from international scrutiny at a time when its economy remains fragile and dependent on external support.
Mr Milei’s trip to Brazil was the start of a tour of the new Right-wing governments across Latin America and served a wider purpose: positioning Mr Milei as Mr Trump’s mouthpiece in the region. The Argentine president plans to attend Keiko Fujimori’s inauguration in Peru and Abelardo de la Espriella’s in Colombia before meeting Daniel Noboa in Ecuador. By establishing himself as the leader of the new Right-wing alliance, Mr Milei hopes to continue to receive White House funds and support, while gaining favour with neighbouring countries and isolating the major Left-wing economies of Brazil and Mexico.
Mr Trump previously handed a $40bn (£30bn) bailout to Argentina ahead of its midterm elections, and a vocal campaign will remind Washington of his sway on the continent, analysts said. Political analyst Tobias Belgrano told The Telegraph: “Milei needs to do these performative acts against Lula because he needs funds. Electoral years are very volatile.”
The risks of clinging to Trump
But sticking with Mr Trump is risky. A Pew Research Center survey published in June showed Argentina was among the most critical of 36 countries when asked about the US president. Just one in five Argentines believe the US contributes to peace and stability around the world, while 66 per cent have no confidence in Mr Trump. For a leader who claims to have a mandate from the Argentine people, Milei’s embrace of a deeply unpopular figure in his own country could prove politically poisonous in the long run.
Mr Milei also risks the US turning its attention away in November, if the midterm elections go as badly as feared for the Republicans. A Democratic-controlled Congress could significantly reduce the flow of financial support to Buenos Aires and shift Washington’s focus away from Latin America. Even within a Republican administration, priorities can change quickly, and Argentina may find itself relegated to a peripheral concern.
Bolsonaro’s troubled campaign
If Mr Bolsonaro defeats Mr Lula, Mr Trump could also prioritise his relationship with Brazil, a far bigger economy than Argentina, Mr Belgrano said. Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of disgraced former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence after plotting a coup and an attempted assassination of Mr Lula. The younger Bolsonaro has been hoping that his alliances with Trump and Milei would boost his election prospects, but his campaign has been dogged by a string of financial and familial scandals.
Adding to his woes, a set of new US tariffs have been levied on Brazil, largely blamed on him and his brother, Eduardo. The tariffs have hurt Brazilian exporters and given Lula’s campaign a powerful narrative: that the American right is trying to destabilise Brazil’s economy to install a compliant government. Mr Lula has accused the US of meddling in Brazil’s elections and imposing tariffs for political motivations to punish him, following pressure from Mr Bolsonaro’s family.
Lula gains from interference
But the alleged interference could, inversely, benefit Mr Lula, as Brazilians rally behind the president. The Leftist leader recently turned away two US officials, denying them visas over claims they were trying to interfere with the upcoming election, amid fears they would try to influence voters. “In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it doesn’t belong,” the president declared.
In response, the US on Tuesday revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador to Washington, an official told the BBC, with a state department spokesperson calling it a “reciprocal action”. The diplomatic spat between Washington and Brasília has escalated rapidly, and it now threatens to overshadow the economic ties that have long anchored US-Brazil relations.
The US and Argentina had been hoping that their vocal and concerted efforts to back Mr Bolsonaro would extend their growing Right-wing network, but instead, it could fracture it. Dr Hedges said: “A majority of people in Brazil now identify themselves as Right-wing rather than Left-wing, according to opinion polls. But since Trump started up again with the tariffs and all of this, we’ve just seen Lula keep extending his lead over Bolsonaro in the opinion polls. He has had a bump from all of this, and it’s exactly what Washington and Buenos Aires didn’t want.”
With every new provocation, Milei seems to be strengthening his own political base among hard-right nationalists while alienating Brazil’s government and much of the Argentine electorate. His gamble is that Trump’s patronage will ultimately prove more valuable than a stable relationship with Brazil, but the evidence so far suggests otherwise. Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner, and the two countries are deeply intertwined through supply chains, energy, and regional diplomacy. A prolonged diplomatic freeze could cost Argentina billions in exports and investment, worsening an already severe economic crisis.
Milei’s political survival may now depend on factors entirely outside his control: the outcome of the US midterms, the actions of Trump, and whether Brazilian voters ultimately reward or punish Bolsonaro for his association with the Trumpian project. For now, the Argentine president continues to double down on a strategy that has left Argentina more isolated, his government more unpopular, and his regional influence weaker than ever. Instead of extending the Right-wing alliance across Latin America, Milei’s Trumpian tactics are uniting the Left, unsettling his own voters, and handing his adversaries exactly the political ammunition they need.
Source:Yahoo News News